Private Credit+
CMPASS
Beneath the Surface
The Undercurrents Shaping Private Credit+
Oxane's 'Credit-Exclusive'
Industry Survey
ABOUT THE SURVEY
From February to April 2026, Oxane surveyed 380+ senior credit leaders across leading global private credit markets, aimed to be the only survey of this scale focused exclusively on credit. All respondents held the title of Director and above, including Oxane clients whose aggregate AUM hosted on our platform totals $1.4 trillion.
380
Respondents from leading banks, asset managers and private credit funds
$4T+
Aggregate Credit AUM
90%
From the Investment Management and Portfolio Management functions
89
Global firms participated in the survey

KEY TAKEAWAYS

83%
AUM growth is near-universal
All leading private credit firms expect to scale. Only 2% anticipate a decline.
66%
ABF has overtaken direct lending
The most widely held strategy for the first time — ahead of direct lending at 56%.
60%
Fund Finance is the #2 strategy
47% of active firms plan to deploy more capital in the year ahead.
42%
Risk management is the #1 challenge
The highest-ranked operational challenge — rising to 60% among private credit funds.
78%
Tech budgets are up across the board
Every increase is above 20%. Decreases are essentially zero (0.3%).
87%
Firms have implemented AI
Firms are increasingly deploying AI in multiple workflows.
“

Growth remains the defining story of this market. The next phase will belong to firms that can pair ambition with discipline.

SUMIT GUPTA  |  CEO & CO-FOUNDER, OXANE PARTNERS

The Capital Outlook

83%
of firms expect AUM to grow in the next 12-18 months
“Our priority is now increasing deployment in private credit and real assets for yield opportunities.”
Director, US asset manager

The growth outlook is broadly bullish — 83% expect AUM to scale, and only 2% anticipate a decline. Private credit firms are the most expansionary at 92%, with banks growing steadily at 85%. One in five firms expects 20–50% AUM growth over the next eighteen months.

The more significant story is convergence. Banks that retrenched from lending over the past decade are now moving back into credit alongside institutional capital — this time as partners, not competitors. Geographic appetite is widening too: Canada now rates as the strongest expansion signal outside the core US, UK and European corridor.

AUM growth expectations
92% of private credit firms are scaling vs 85% of banks. Non-bank alternative lenders are growing fastest.

ABF TAKES CENTER STAGE

66%
are active in ABF and 57% plan to deploy more
“We are now prioritizing building deeper relationships with sponsors and borrowers to improve deal flow”
Vice President, UK private credit firm

Asset-based and specialty finance has overtaken corporate direct lending as the most widely held strategy. Of those active in ABF, 57% plan to deploy more capital — the strongest forward signal in the dataset. Fund Finance follows at 60% active, with 47% planning to increase.

Securitised products present the sharpest growth signal: only 33% are currently active, but 49% of those firms plan to do more — the second-highest deployment intensity in the dataset. This is where new capacity in private credit is being built.

Deployment outlook by strategy

% of active firms planning to deploy more capital over the next 12 months

ABF commands both the widest footprint and the strongest forward conviction. It is no longer an opportunistic allocation - deal activity runs on a steadier cadence now, making it an institutional, repeatable market.

80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
49%
Corp. Direct Lending
53%
ABF / Specialty
40%
CRE Finance
46%
Infrastructure Finance
49%
Securitised Products
47%
Fund Finance
36%
SRT

The Concern Stack

42%
The risk management agenda widens – 42% point to liquidity, valuations and exit options
“Driving performance while managing risk as well as improving operations will be my priorities.”
Director, US private credit firm

This is not a market with a single dominant worry. Six concerns register between 28% and 46% — a multi-front risk environment where firms must manage external shocks and structural challenges simultaneously. For banks, regulatory scrutiny is the primary pressure. For private credit funds, liquidity, valuations and exit optionality sit at the top.

Top concerns in the current environment
1Macroeconomic & recession risks
46%
2Geopolitical risks
46%
3Liquidity, valuations & exits
42%
4Regulatory / compliance scrutiny
36%
5Technology imperatives
35%
6Operational & talent risks
30%
7Sourcing investment opportunities
24%
8Meeting target returns
22%
For banks
Regulatory & compliance scrutiny is the primary pressure point — correlating strongly with seniority.
For funds
Liquidity, valuations & exit options is the #1 concern — the pressure point of scaling in a fundamentally illiquid asset class.

Firms are not simply looking for more tools. They are looking for stronger operating infrastructure, cleaner data, better controls and workflows that can support scale through changing markets.

KANAV KALIA  |  MANAGING DIRECTOR, OXANE PARTNERS
Operations & Tech Readiness

The ambition is consistent across every firm type. The delivery gap is not.

Three forward signals, capital growth, technology spend, AI adoption, mapped against the operational challenges each firm type is actually grappling with. Select two firm types to compare.

Firm type A
▾
VS
Firm type B
▾
Asset Managers
AUM growth expectation 84%
84% expect AUM growth — though 4.7% anticipate a decline, the only firm type with meaningful downside expectations
Technology budget commitment 84%
84% are increasing tech budgets — predominantly through third-party systems rather than in-house build
AI adoption — piloting or in production 84%
84% have AI in pilot or production — but 12% are still only exploring, the lowest active engagement rate
TOP OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES - ASSET MANAGERS
Legacy modernization 35%
Valuations and risk management 39%
Cybersecurity risk management 42%
Banks
AUM growth expectation 79%
79% expect growth — banks are scaling steadily, increasingly alongside institutional capital rather than in competition with it
Technology budget commitment 77%
77% are increasing tech budgets — and banks have the highest in-house build rate of any firm type (41–50% across functions)
AI adoption — piloting or in production 90%
90% of banks have AI in implementation — the highest of any firm type. The conventional view of banks as AI laggards is not supported
TOP OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES - BANKS
Cybersecurity risk management 32%
Legacy modernization 33%
Valuations and risk management 38%
▶ Signal for Asset Managers: Asset managers buy rather than build across most critical functions, and 42% cite cybersecurity as their top concern, the highest of any firm type. The risk is concentration: operational dependency in third-party systems they do not control.
▶ Signal for Banks: Banks lead on AI-in-production. The challenge is not capability, it is transparency. Regulators and capital allocators increasingly require real-time visibility across every financed portfolio. Legacy systems are what stand in the way.

The Operational Estate

42%
flag risk management as a top concern
“We will now be strengthening cybersecurity, modernizing core banking systems, enhancing cloud infrastructure, ensuring regulatory compliance, automating processes and optimizing data-driven decision-making.”
Director, UK bank

Private credit+ has reached institutional scale — but the operating setup has not kept pace. 42% of firms cite risk management as their #1 operational challenge, rising to 60% among private credit funds. Banks and funds are approaching the problem from very different starting points.

Funds are scaling fastest and feeling the consequences most acutely — technology imperatives and valuation confidence dominate their challenge list. Banks carry the strongest operational estate but face a transparency problem: regulation and rating agencies demand real-time, granular visibility that legacy systems cannot yet provide.

Valuations & risk management
42%
Cybersecurity risk management
34%
Modernising legacy technology
31%
Ingesting & managing diverse data
30%
Regulatory / compliance scrutiny
26%
Collateral verification & monitoring
25%
Borrowing base / leverage mgmt
23%
Build vs Buy vs Manual — where each function sits

Each bubble is a business function. Its position shows in-house build rate (vertical) against third-party reliance (horizontal). Bubble size encodes manual / Excel dependency — the operational risk signal. Switch firm type to see how the landscape shifts.

BUILD ZONEBUY ZONEIn-house build %External dependency %52%PortfolioPortfolioMgmtMgmt47%EnterpriseEnterpriseDataData43%OriginationOrigination42%UnderwritingUnderwriting40%Pricing /Pricing /ValVal37%Coll. &Coll. &RiskRisk34%TreasuryTreasury
Hover any circle to see function context
Build dominant
Buy dominant
Number = in-house build %

The Modernisation Agenda

78%
of firms are significantly increasing technology budgets- every increase is above 20%

The investment intent is unambiguous. Four in five firms are growing technology spend significantly — and the strategic question has shifted from whether to invest, to what to invest in. Security, scalability, execution certainty and financial stability are the top four evaluation criteria for new technology partners.

AI capabilities are ranked at the bottom . The market is not buying AI-first — it is selecting for infrastructure it can trust to run critical operations, and expecting AI to be embedded within it. The chart below ranks the twelve evaluation criteria by importance, and reorders dynamically by firm type.

Vendor evaluation criteria — ranked by importance
% rating as Critical or High priority · hover any row for firm-type context · rows reorder dynamically
50% 60% 70% 80% STRONG PREFERENCE TABLE STAKES NON-NEGOTIABLE Security & Data maturity77% Scalability71% Interoperability71% Execution certainty69% Financial stability67% Client references66% Product-need fit63% Total cost of ownership63% User training & adoption63% Domain expertise61% Product roadmap61% AI capabilities58%
Hover any criterion to understand what it means for this market
AI TAKES HOLD IN PRIVATE CREDIT+
87%  
of firms are now actively engaging AI in their operations

The idea that AI remains a future consideration is out of date. 87% of firms are actively engaging AI — and the conversation has shifted from whether to adopt, to how far ahead you already are. Banks and private credit funds lead the cohort in piloting and implementing AI.

35%
AI in production across
one or more workflows
37%
Actively piloting
AI solutions
15%
Developing
in-house AI tools

"Our priority is improving our technological presence so that we can continue to expand and scale — otherwise, we will be restricted."

— UK private fund manager

THE FORWARD VIEW

Beyond the Horizon: Private Credit+ at Scale

Compass 2026 points to a market confident in its growth prospects but more realistic about what scale requires. Capital intent is strong, the asset mix is broadening, and technology investment is rising. The findings show a market still moving forward — but with a sharper understanding of the operating demands ahead.

The next phase will not be measured by capital formation alone. Firms will need a control environment that brings data, valuations, risk, monitoring and reporting into a single transparent framework. The opportunity is significant. Scale will require discipline.

Forward View